Volume 9: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
1. Introduction
The geographical pattern of the BSE epidemic

1.3 Although the scale of the epidemic was vastly larger in England than elsewhere in the UK, its general pattern was closely mirrored in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Charts 1 and 2 overleaf illustrate this in different ways. Chart 1 shows the far greater numbers of animals affected in England. Wales was the next most severely affected, while incidence was somewhat lower in Scotland. Northern Ireland was cushioned from the main impact by its island status and the trade barriers it was able to impose. As the table below shows, incidence there remained low.

Table 1: A comparison of cumulative herd incidence of BSE in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, up to 20 March 1996

Chart 1: Number of confirmed cases of BSE by year of clinical onset, up to 20 March 1996

Chart 2: Number of confirmed cases of BSE by year of clinical onset, up to 20 March 1996 (logarithmic scale)

1.4 Chart 2, by using a logarithmic scale, makes it easier to compare the phases of the epidemic, which peaked in England and Wales in 1992, and in Scotland and Northern Ireland a year later, mirroring its later emergence. In Northern Ireland the epidemic, according to known confirmed cases, began two years later than in England. Recent epidemiological findings suggest that the first cases in Wales were a little earlier than these charts suggest, but this does not affect the overall shape of the epidemic there. The logarithmic chart shows how the course of the disease followed a similar pattern in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

1.5 It was well-established practice for major threats to animal and human health to be addressed on a UK-wide basis, with the policy lead and overall coordinating role taken by Whitehall, including dealing with the international implications. The problems posed by BSE clearly fell into that category. As the charts show, the way the epidemic evolved and its sheer scale made it especially urgent for England to find ways of arresting its progress.