Volume 3: The Early Years, 1986-88
3. Epidemiology
The identification of feed as a possible cause of infection

3.13 During June, July and August of 1987 Mr Wilesmith accumulated data on the pedigree of animals in affected herds. He examined the possibility of a genetic factor in the incidence of BSE with Dr Vernan Wijeratne, at that time a veterinary geneticist in the CVL's Animal Production Department. ¹ While autosomal dominant inheritance could be confidently excluded, Dr Wijeratne thought that BSE might be caused by an autosomal recessive gene. ² Data on the sources of semen used for artificial insemination were also collected. On 10 March 1988, Mr Wilesmith reported his conclusion that the data did not support an autosomal recessive mode of inheritance, which indicated that BSE was not solely a genetic disease. ³

3.14 On 10 November 1987 Mr Wilesmith attended a meeting at Tolworth chaired by Mr Rees, the CVO. He informed the meeting that 32 cases had now been confirmed on 29 farms and that a further 96 suspect cases on 50 farms had been identified. Although 54 farms had only one case, one farm had had 11 cases. In one area in Devon there were 14 herds in close proximity with either clinically confirmed or suspect cases of BSE. The note of the meeting records that:

The animal feed aspects were being looked at - ovine offal can be incorporated in dairy feed - UKASTA (Judith Nelson) has been advised of the work undertaken on feed. ⁴

3.15 Judith Nelson has no recollection of being informed of a suspected link between feed and BSE at this time, nor do UKASTA's documents record that she was so informed. UKASTA's evidence is that they did not learn of the suspected link until March 1988. ⁵

3.16 On 27 November 1987 Dr Watson asked Mr Bradley to provide answers to a number of questions. One of these, relating to BSE, asked: 'Should we approach the cattle feed industry?' Replying in writing the same day, Mr Bradley answered:

Not yet. We must first identify the right questions to ask and we have more data to collect yet. We also need time to think. If we approach too early concealment of information is likely. The direct question is more likely to extract answers or identify areas to probe further rather than asking 'what changes, additions, sources have you put in feed since 1981?' ⁶

3.17 Over three months were to elapse before a direct approach seeking information and assistance was made to the feed industry.