Volume 16: Reference Material
3. Statistics
Suspect and confirmed cases

3.14 In the early stages of the epidemic, when the symptoms were a mystery to many and the potential scale of the problem was still unrecognised, the recording of cases was necessarily somewhat haphazard and unstructured. From January to the end of July 1987, information on the course of the disease was recorded more systematically, but not in a uniform way. From August 1987 to June 1988, the CVL maintained a weekly record and, from September 1987, began to issue weekly summaries of confirmed and suspected cases. BSE was made a notifiable disease from 21 June 1988, and from that point farmers were under a statutory obligation to report all cases to the Veterinary Investigation Centres (VICs).

3.15 Figure 3.28 (A and B) gives a summary of suspect cases before BSE became a notifiable disease. Figures 3.29a and 3.29b show in figures and pictorially the number of suspect cases from the date on which BSE became notifiable, and the proportion of suspect cases that were subsequently not confirmed as BSE, up to 20 March 1996. Roughly 15 per cent of cases were not confirmed - slightly more in Wales, and slightly fewer in England. (The figures in this section refer to Great Britain only.)

Figure 3.28: (A and B): Summary of suspect cases of BSE prior to BSE becoming a notifiable disease

Figure 3.29a: Number of suspect BSE cases in Great Britain by year of notification and by whether or not they were subsequently confirmed as BSE, 16 June 1988 to 20 March 1996

Figure 3.29b: Number of suspect BSE cases in Great Britain by year of notification and by whether or not they were subsequently confirmed as BSE, 16 June 1988 to 20 March 1996