Volume 1: Findings and Conclusions
2. Setting the context
Handling risk
Risk evaluation
Risk management
BSE and risk

158 In a primitive society, the major hazards are those posed by nature. In a complex modern society the acts of individuals or corporate bodies may also involve serious hazards to other members of society. All governments intervene in many different ways to reduce the exposure of their citizens to hazards created by nature or by human acts. Dealing with such hazards is one of the most important functions of government.

159 Every action taken to reduce exposure to hazard has its price. Many administrative actions taken for this purpose involve government expenditure, to be recovered in one way or another from the citizen. Statutory measures which prohibit or regulate potentially hazardous activities impose costs on those to whom the measures apply and may stifle innovation. Where the activities are commercial, these costs are likely to be passed on to the customer or consumer. Restriction of freedom of choice for the individual will usually be part of the cost of a safety restriction - sometimes the most significant part.

Risk evaluation

160 When considering whether to impose a safety measure the Government has to balance the benefits that will be achieved from reducing or eliminating exposure to a hazard against the costs that the measure will involve. This process involves what is sometimes described as 'risk evaluation'.

161 A risk is not the same as a hazard. A hazard is an intrinsic propensity to cause harm. Natural phenomena, physical substances, human activities will be hazardous if they have an intrinsic propensity to cause harm. A risk is the likelihood that a hazard will result in harm. A risk can usually be evaluated once the nature of the hazard and the degree of exposure to it are identified. Risk evaluation involves considering both the likelihood that a hazard will cause harm and the severity of the harm that is threatened.

Risk management

162 Action to reduce or eliminate a risk may involve destruction of a substance or prohibition or regulation of an activity that gives rise to a hazard. Alternatively it may involve eliminating or reducing the exposure to the hazard. Risk management involves identifying the options for reducing or eliminating the risk and their likely efficacy, estimating the costs involved in each option, deciding which, if any, of the available options to exercise, implementing the chosen options and monitoring the results.

163 In some circumstances past experience enables the statistician or the epidemiologist to calculate with some precision the effect that an option will have on reducing risk. Management of the risks associated with road traffic is such an example. It is often possible to calculate the number of lives that a particular road safety measure is likely to save. In such circumstances one can decide on principles or guidelines that will govern risk management, such as the maximum expenditure that can be justified per life saved.

BSE and risk

164 BSE was not like that. Attempts could be made to evaluate the risk to cattle. So far as other animals, and humans, were concerned, however, nobody knew whether BSE was a hazard or not. In such a situation the Government has to decide what precautionary measures to adopt against the possibility that the risk exists. One technique that can be adopted is known by the acronym ALARP. This calls for weighing the efficacy that any particular measure will have in reducing the notional risk against the cost and other consequences of introducing the measure. The aim is to reduce the possible risk so that it is As Low As Reasonably Practicable. It involves an exercise in proportionality that often calls for nice judgement.